stockout riskawaiting approvalCASE-VB-LAH-07-VB-EN-0337

Original 4-Pack 437 projected to stock out at ABC Distribution Lahore Territory 7 in 6 days

Selling faster than replenishment can arrive — stock will run out first.

PKR 33,597

margin at risk

Confidence

62%

Urgency

72%

Approver

Regional Operations Director

Data

Partly stale

Likely explanation

Recent sales are running ahead of the replenishment cycle
70% confidence · 100% of the gap

Options

What each choice is worth, including doing nothing.

Expedite the outstanding supplier orderrecommendedPKR 25,597

cost PKR 61,000 · 54% confidence · 96h to execute

Do nothing-PKR 33,597

cost PKR 0 · 90% confidence · 0h to execute

Decision

Genaima recommends that you Expedite the outstanding supplier order.

Unsure flags this for a second look — the case stays open.

Evidence

52.07 units/day over 28 days
306 on hand, 433 inbound
0 overdue purchase order(s)

Constraints checked

✓source must retain 28 days of cover
✓must arrive within 6 days

Value trail

identifiedPKR 33,597
How this is calculated
Value trail — identified
Formula
Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'identified' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
Inputs
value_ledger.amount_paisa
PKR 33,597
decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
PKR 33,597
Value on this screen
PKR 33,597
Sources
- value_ledger
- decision_case
recommendedPKR 25,597
How this is calculated
Value trail — recommended
Formula
Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'recommended' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against the recommended option's expectedValue.amountPaisa
Inputs
value_ledger.amount_paisa
PKR 25,597
decision_case.doc.options[].expectedValue.amountPaisa
PKR 25,597
Value on this screen
PKR 25,597
Sources
- value_ledger
- decision_case

Activity

Full history (5)

detected → validating · system:orchestrator
evidence accepted
validating → investigating · system:orchestrator
evidence accepted
investigating → planning · system:orchestrator
evidence accepted
planning → critiquing · system:orchestrator
evidence accepted
critiquing → awaiting_approval · system:orchestrator
evidence accepted