← Decisions
stockout riskawaiting approvalCASE-VB-FAI-01-VB-SB-0046

Cherry 1.5L PET 146 projected to stock out at ABC Distribution Faisalabad Territory 1 in 8 days

Selling faster than replenishment can arrive — stock will run out first.

PKR 28,310
margin at risk
Confidence
62%
Urgency
61%
Approver
Regional Operations Director
Data
Partly stale

Likely explanation

  • Recent sales are running ahead of the replenishment cycle
    70% confidence · 100% of the gap

Options

What each choice is worth, including doing nothing.

Transfer 3453 units from ABC Distribution Faisalabad Territory 2recommendedPKR 28,310
cost PKR 41,000 · 62% confidence · 48h to execute
Expedite the outstanding supplier orderPKR 21,570
cost PKR 61,000 · 54% confidence · 96h to execute
Do nothing-PKR 28,310
cost PKR 0 · 90% confidence · 0h to execute

Decision

Genaima recommends that you Transfer 3453 units from ABC Distribution Faisalabad Territory 2.

Unsure flags this for a second look — the case stays open.

Evidence

  • 115.07 units/day over 28 days
  • 937 on hand, 433 inbound
  • 0 overdue purchase order(s)

Constraints checked

  • source must retain 28 days of cover
  • must arrive within 8 days

Value trail

  • identifiedPKR 28,310
    How this is calculated
    Value trail — identified
    Formula

    Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'identified' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa

    Inputs
    value_ledger.amount_paisa
    PKR 28,310
    decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
    PKR 28,310
    Value on this screen
    PKR 28,310
    Sources
    • value_ledger
    • decision_case

Activity

Full history (5)
  • detectedvalidating · system:orchestrator
    evidence accepted
  • validatinginvestigating · system:orchestrator
    evidence accepted
  • investigatingplanning · system:orchestrator
    evidence accepted
  • planningcritiquing · system:orchestrator
    Confidence in this recommendation is 62%, and policy requires at least 80%.
  • critiquingawaiting_approval · system:orchestrator
    Confidence in this recommendation is 62%, and policy requires at least 80%.
Fictional demo company. All business data is synthetic and for illustration only.