stockout riskawaiting approvalCASE-VB-FAI-01-VB-JU-0261

Guava 200ml Pack 361 projected to stock out at ABC Distribution Faisalabad Territory 1 in 3 days

Selling faster than replenishment can arrive — stock will run out first.

PKR 1,36,957

margin at risk

Confidence

62%

Urgency

86%

Approver

Regional Operations Director

Data

Partly stale

Likely explanation

Recent sales are running ahead of the replenishment cycle
70% confidence · 100% of the gap

Options

What each choice is worth, including doing nothing.

Expedite the outstanding supplier orderrecommendedPKR 1,04,348

cost PKR 61,000 · 54% confidence · 96h to execute

Do nothing-PKR 1,36,957

cost PKR 0 · 90% confidence · 0h to execute

Decision

Genaima recommends that you Expedite the outstanding supplier order.

Unsure flags this for a second look — the case stays open.

Evidence

55.93 units/day over 28 days
162 on hand, 0 inbound
0 overdue purchase order(s)

Constraints checked

✓source must retain 28 days of cover
!must arrive within 3 days

Value trail

identifiedPKR 1,36,957
How this is calculated
Value trail — identified
Formula
Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'identified' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
Inputs
value_ledger.amount_paisa
PKR 1,36,957
decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
PKR 1,36,957
Value on this screen
PKR 1,36,957
Sources
- value_ledger
- decision_case
recommendedPKR 1,04,348
How this is calculated
Value trail — recommended
Formula
Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'recommended' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against the recommended option's expectedValue.amountPaisa
Inputs
value_ledger.amount_paisa
PKR 1,04,348
decision_case.doc.options[].expectedValue.amountPaisa
PKR 1,04,348
Value on this screen
PKR 1,04,348
Sources
- value_ledger
- decision_case

Activity

Full history (5)

detected → validating · system:orchestrator
evidence accepted
validating → investigating · system:orchestrator
evidence accepted
investigating → planning · system:orchestrator
evidence accepted
planning → critiquing · system:orchestrator
evidence accepted
critiquing → awaiting_approval · system:orchestrator
evidence accepted