← Decisions
stockout riskclosedCASE-H-014
Restock rejected — Apple 6-Pack 362 at ABC Distribution Lahore Territory 6
Selling faster than replenishment can arrive — stock will run out first.
PKR 24,944
margin at risk
Confidence
82%
Urgency
50%
Approver
Regional Operations Director
Data
Up to date
Likely explanation
- Sales ran ahead of the replenishment cycle70% confidence
Options
What each choice is worth, including doing nothing.
Expedite replenishment of Apple 6-Pack 362 to ABC Distribution Lahore Territory 6recommendedPKR 22,657
cost PKR 2,265 · 80% confidence · 96h to execute
Do nothing-PKR 24,944
cost PKR 0 · 90% confidence · 0h to execute
Decision
Genaima recommends that you Expedite replenishment of Apple 6-Pack 362 to ABC Distribution Lahore Territory 6.
This case is closed — decisions are recorded once and cannot be replayed.
Evidence
- impact PKR 24,944, backfilled from the bottleneck table for the quarter before 2026-08-04
Constraints checked
- ✓replenishment fits inside the cover window
Value trail
- identifiedPKR 24,944
How this is calculated
Value trail — identifiedFormulaΣ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'identified' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
Inputs- value_ledger.amount_paisa
- PKR 24,944
- decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
- PKR 24,944
Value on this screenPKR 24,944Sourcesvalue_ledgerdecision_case
- recommendedPKR 22,657
How this is calculated
Value trail — recommendedFormulaΣ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'recommended' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against the recommended option's expectedValue.amountPaisa
Inputs- value_ledger.amount_paisa
- PKR 22,657
- decision_case.doc.options[].expectedValue.amountPaisa
- PKR 22,657
Value on this screenPKR 22,657Sourcesvalue_ledgerdecision_case
Activity
Full history (7)
- detected → validating · system:orchestratorevidence accepted
- validating → investigating · system:orchestratorroot cause traced to the replenishment cycle running behind sales
- investigating → planning · system:orchestratorrestock option priced against do nothing
- planning → critiquing · system:orchestratoroption survived critique
- critiquing → awaiting_approval · system:orchestratorrecommendation put to the approver
- awaiting_approval → rejected · Demo Approver 01, Regional Operations Directornot commercially worth it — recovery is below the freight and handling cost
- rejected → closed · system:orchestratorcase closed after rejection