← Decisions
stockout riskclosedCASE-H-011
Restock approved — Berry 4-Pack 436 at ABC Distribution Faisalabad Territory 1
Selling faster than replenishment can arrive — stock will run out first.
PKR 29,203
margin at risk
Confidence
82%
Urgency
50%
Approver
Regional Operations Director
Data
Up to date
Likely explanation
- Sales ran ahead of the replenishment cycle70% confidence
Options
What each choice is worth, including doing nothing.
Expedite replenishment of Berry 4-Pack 436 to ABC Distribution Faisalabad Territory 1recommendedPKR 22,349
cost PKR 2,234 · 80% confidence · 96h to execute
Do nothing-PKR 29,203
cost PKR 0 · 90% confidence · 0h to execute
Decision
Genaima recommends that you Expedite replenishment of Berry 4-Pack 436 to ABC Distribution Faisalabad Territory 1.
This case is closed — decisions are recorded once and cannot be replayed.
Evidence
- impact PKR 29,203, backfilled from the bottleneck table for the quarter before 2026-08-04
Constraints checked
- ✓replenishment fits inside the cover window
Value trail
- identifiedPKR 29,203
How this is calculated
Value trail — identifiedFormulaΣ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'identified' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
Inputs- value_ledger.amount_paisa
- PKR 29,203
- decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
- PKR 29,203
Value on this screenPKR 29,203Sourcesvalue_ledgerdecision_case
- recommendedPKR 22,349
How this is calculated
Value trail — recommendedFormulaΣ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'recommended' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against the recommended option's expectedValue.amountPaisa
Inputs- value_ledger.amount_paisa
- PKR 22,349
- decision_case.doc.options[].expectedValue.amountPaisa
- PKR 22,349
Value on this screenPKR 22,349Sourcesvalue_ledgerdecision_case
- approvedPKR 22,349
How this is calculated
Value trail — approvedFormulaΣ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'approved' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against the recommended option's expectedValue.amountPaisa
Inputs- value_ledger.amount_paisa
- PKR 22,349
- decision_case.doc.options[].expectedValue.amountPaisa
- PKR 22,349
Value on this screenPKR 22,349Sourcesvalue_ledgerdecision_case
- executedPKR 22,349
- realizedPKR 14,113
- finance verifiedPKR 13,413
Activity
Full history (10)
- detected → validating · system:orchestratorevidence accepted
- validating → investigating · system:orchestratorroot cause traced to the replenishment cycle running behind sales
- investigating → planning · system:orchestratorrestock option priced against do nothing
- planning → critiquing · system:orchestratoroption survived critique
- critiquing → awaiting_approval · system:orchestratorrecommendation put to the approver
- awaiting_approval → approved · Demo Approver 01, Regional Operations Directorapproved as recommended
- approved → executing · ops:dc-transfer-deskreplenishment order placed with the DC
- executing → monitoring · system:orchestratorstock landed; monitoring sell-through against baseline
- monitoring → verified · system:outcome-verifieroutcome verified: realized 63% of the executed value
- verified → closed · system:orchestratorcase closed after outcome verification