← Decisions
stockout riskclosedCASE-H-007

Restock approved — Citrus 12-Pack 428 at ABC Distribution Islamabad Distribution Hub

Selling faster than replenishment can arrive — stock will run out first.

PKR 42,816
margin at risk
Confidence
82%
Urgency
50%
Approver
Regional Operations Director
Data
Up to date

Likely explanation

  • Sales ran ahead of the replenishment cycle
    70% confidence

Options

What each choice is worth, including doing nothing.

Expedite replenishment of Citrus 12-Pack 428 to ABC Distribution Islamabad Distribution HubrecommendedPKR 32,433
cost PKR 3,243 · 80% confidence · 96h to execute
Do nothing-PKR 42,816
cost PKR 0 · 90% confidence · 0h to execute

Decision

Genaima recommends that you Expedite replenishment of Citrus 12-Pack 428 to ABC Distribution Islamabad Distribution Hub.

This case is closed — decisions are recorded once and cannot be replayed.

Evidence

  • impact PKR 42,816, backfilled from the bottleneck table for the quarter before 2026-08-04

Constraints checked

  • replenishment fits inside the cover window

Value trail

  • identifiedPKR 42,816
    How this is calculated
    Value trail — identified
    Formula

    Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'identified' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa

    Inputs
    value_ledger.amount_paisa
    PKR 42,816
    decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
    PKR 42,816
    Value on this screen
    PKR 42,816
    Sources
    • value_ledger
    • decision_case
  • recommendedPKR 32,433
    How this is calculated
    Value trail — recommended
    Formula

    Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'recommended' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against the recommended option's expectedValue.amountPaisa

    Inputs
    value_ledger.amount_paisa
    PKR 32,433
    decision_case.doc.options[].expectedValue.amountPaisa
    PKR 32,433
    Value on this screen
    PKR 32,433
    Sources
    • value_ledger
    • decision_case
  • approvedPKR 32,433
    How this is calculated
    Value trail — approved
    Formula

    Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'approved' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against the recommended option's expectedValue.amountPaisa

    Inputs
    value_ledger.amount_paisa
    PKR 32,433
    decision_case.doc.options[].expectedValue.amountPaisa
    PKR 32,433
    Value on this screen
    PKR 32,433
    Sources
    • value_ledger
    • decision_case
  • executedPKR 32,433
  • realizedPKR 26,430

Activity

Full history (10)
  • detectedvalidating · system:orchestrator
    evidence accepted
  • validatinginvestigating · system:orchestrator
    root cause traced to the replenishment cycle running behind sales
  • investigatingplanning · system:orchestrator
    restock option priced against do nothing
  • planningcritiquing · system:orchestrator
    option survived critique
  • critiquingawaiting_approval · system:orchestrator
    recommendation put to the approver
  • awaiting_approvalapproved · Demo Approver 01, Regional Operations Director
    approved as recommended
  • approvedexecuting · ops:dc-transfer-desk
    replenishment order placed with the DC
  • executingmonitoring · system:orchestrator
    stock landed; monitoring sell-through against baseline
  • monitoringverified · system:outcome-verifier
    outcome verified: realized 81% of the executed value
  • verifiedclosed · system:orchestrator
    case closed after outcome verification
Fictional demo company. All business data is synthetic and for illustration only.