← Decisions
stockout riskclosedCASE-H-006

Restock approved — Summer 6-Pack Bundle 498 at ABC Distribution Lahore Territory 2

Selling faster than replenishment can arrive — stock will run out first.

PKR 46,645
margin at risk
Confidence
82%
Urgency
50%
Approver
Regional Operations Director
Data
Up to date

Likely explanation

  • Sales ran ahead of the replenishment cycle
    70% confidence

Options

What each choice is worth, including doing nothing.

Expedite replenishment of Summer 6-Pack Bundle 498 to ABC Distribution Lahore Territory 2recommendedPKR 38,934
cost PKR 3,893 · 80% confidence · 96h to execute
Do nothing-PKR 46,645
cost PKR 0 · 90% confidence · 0h to execute

Decision

Genaima recommends that you Expedite replenishment of Summer 6-Pack Bundle 498 to ABC Distribution Lahore Territory 2.

This case is closed — decisions are recorded once and cannot be replayed.

Evidence

  • impact PKR 46,645, backfilled from the bottleneck table for the quarter before 2026-08-04

Constraints checked

  • ✓replenishment fits inside the cover window

Value trail

  • identifiedPKR 46,645
    How this is calculated
    Value trail — identified
    Formula

    Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'identified' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa

    Inputs
    value_ledger.amount_paisa
    PKR 46,645
    decision_case.doc.exposure.marginAtRiskPaisa
    PKR 46,645
    Value on this screen
    PKR 46,645
    Sources
    • value_ledger
    • decision_case
  • recommendedPKR 38,934
    How this is calculated
    Value trail — recommended
    Formula

    Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'recommended' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against the recommended option's expectedValue.amountPaisa

    Inputs
    value_ledger.amount_paisa
    PKR 38,934
    decision_case.doc.options[].expectedValue.amountPaisa
    PKR 38,934
    Value on this screen
    PKR 38,934
    Sources
    • value_ledger
    • decision_case
  • approvedPKR 38,934
    How this is calculated
    Value trail — approved
    Formula

    Σ value_ledger.amount_paisa where stage = 'approved' and value_type = 'protected_margin', reconciled row-by-row against the recommended option's expectedValue.amountPaisa

    Inputs
    value_ledger.amount_paisa
    PKR 38,934
    decision_case.doc.options[].expectedValue.amountPaisa
    PKR 38,934
    Value on this screen
    PKR 38,934
    Sources
    • value_ledger
    • decision_case
  • executedPKR 38,934
  • realizedPKR 25,023
  • finance verifiedPKR 23,689

Activity

Full history (10)
  • detected → validating · system:orchestrator
    evidence accepted
  • validating → investigating · system:orchestrator
    root cause traced to the replenishment cycle running behind sales
  • investigating → planning · system:orchestrator
    restock option priced against do nothing
  • planning → critiquing · system:orchestrator
    option survived critique
  • critiquing → awaiting_approval · system:orchestrator
    recommendation put to the approver
  • awaiting_approval → approved · Demo Approver 01, Regional Operations Director
    approved as recommended
  • approved → executing · ops:dc-transfer-desk
    replenishment order placed with the DC
  • executing → monitoring · system:orchestrator
    stock landed; monitoring sell-through against baseline
  • monitoring → verified · system:outcome-verifier
    outcome verified: realized 64% of the executed value
  • verified → closed · system:orchestrator
    case closed after outcome verification
Fictional demo company. All business data is synthetic and for illustration only.